Disruption forecasting in complex schedules
US11074513B2 · kind B2 · utility
Assignee
Inventors
Key dates
| Filing date | Mar 13, 2015 |
| Grant date | Jul 27, 2021 |
| Priority date | — |
| Expiry date | Apr 17, 2037 |
Classification
- Technology area (CPC G)Physics
- CPC primaryG06Q10/0635
- WIPO fieldTransport
- WIPO sectorMechanical engineering
Abstract
A method for forecasting time delays added to a scheduled start time and a scheduled end time of a task includes generating a stochastic model of the task and resources affecting the task, the stochastic model includes a reactionary delay component that is a function of previous task end times and a root cause delay component that is an independent random process at a specific time. The method further includes: calculating a probability distribution of time delays added to the scheduled start time as a combination of the reactionary delay component and the root cause delay component using the stochastic model to provide a probability distribution of start times; and calculating a probability distribution of time delays added to the scheduled end time as a combination of the reactionary delay component and the root cause delay component using the stochastic model to provide a probability distribution of end times.
Source: USPTO / EPO open patent data. Objective bibliographic and citation counts.