Method and system for accurately forecasting prices and other attributes of agricultural commodities

US6865542B2 · kind B2 · utility

Inventors

• Thomas L. Cox · Madison, US
• Chavas Jean-Paul · Madison, US
• Zhu Yong · Beijing, CN

Key dates

• Filing date: Jan 29, 2002
• Grant date: Mar 8, 2005
• Expiry date: Oct 28, 2022

Classification

• Technology area (CPC G): Physics
• CPC primary: G06Q50/02
• WIPO field: IT methods for management
• WIPO sector: Electrical engineering

Abstract

Using a general-purpose computer, the method and system of the present invention enables the forecasting of agricultural commodity prices and amounts of consumption, production and trade flows across regions, under a variety of supply and demand, trade and domestic policy scenarios and over an at least annual time period. The method employs a multi-component spatial equilibrium function approximating an inter-regional market in agricultural commodities, such as dairy commodities, and enables the setting of trade and domestic policy instruments to enable forecasting under a variety of forecast scenarios. The function further enables the incorporation of intermediate commodities, in addition to primary and processed commodities, to account for the effects of reconstitution technologies on said forecasted values. The method generally comprises creating an inputs database comprising a definition of the regions and forecast scenarios, and a plurality of dairy sector data spanning a number of recent years including commodity prices and amounts of consumption, production and trade flow in the regions; refining the function; solving the refined function by maximizing a consumer and a produ…