System and method of predicting future behavior of a battery of end-to-end probes to anticipate and prevent computer network performance degradation
US7081823B2 · kind B2 · utility
Assignee
Inventors
Key dates
| Filing date | Oct 31, 2003 |
| Grant date | Jul 25, 2006 |
| Priority date | — |
| Expiry date | Sep 29, 2024 |
Classification
- Technology area (CPC H)Electricity
- CPC primaryH04L41/5025
- WIPO fieldDigital communication
- WIPO sectorElectrical engineering
Abstract
A diagnostic system in which, at every point in time, a forecast is made of the future response times of each EPP (End-to-end Probe Platform) probe in a battery of probes. Thresholds are established in terms of the distribution of future EPP values. The theory of Generalized Additive Models is used to build a predictive model based on a combination of a) data normally generated by network nodes, b) results of a battery of probes and c) profile curves reflecting expected response times (i.e. based on recent history) corresponding to this battery for various times of day, days of week, month of year, etc. The model is pre-computed, and does not have to be dynamically adjusted. The model produces, at regular intervals, forecasts for outcomes of various EPP probes for various horizons of interest; also, it produces thresholds for the respective forecasts based on a number of factors, including acceptable rate of false alarms, forecast variance and EPP values that are expected based on the recorded history. The system is capable of maintaining a pre-specified low rate of false alarms that could otherwise cause a substantial disturbance in network operation.
Source: USPTO / EPO open patent data. Objective bibliographic and citation counts.