System and method for forecasting uncertain events with adjustments for participants characteristics
US7590554B2 · kind B2 · utility
Assignee
Inventors
Key dates
| Filing date | Oct 11, 2001 |
| Grant date | Sep 15, 2009 |
| Priority date | — |
| Expiry date | Apr 17, 2026 |
Classification
- Technology area (CPC G)Physics
- CPC primaryG06Q30/0206
- WIPO fieldIT methods for management
- WIPO sectorElectrical engineering
Abstract
The present invention is a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. Determining their individual characteristics and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, provides a probability assessment of the future outcome of an uncertain event. In one embodiment of the present invention the aggregated prediction is compared to both the objective probability of its occurrence and the performance of the market as a whole. In one embodiment, the present invention includes a forecasting process comprising, running an information market, extracting participant characteristics, performing a query process, and aggregating the participant characteristics and results of the query process. The information market is designed to elicit characteristics of the participants include participant risk inclination and ability to analyze information provided in the information market.
Source: USPTO / EPO open patent data. Objective bibliographic and citation counts.