Patent · US Active

Methods and systems for generating transition probability matrices through an optimization framework

US8249981B2 · kind B2 · utility

1Cited by
10References
51Claims
0Family size

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Key dates

Filing dateDec 16, 2008
Grant dateAug 21, 2012
Priority date
Expiry dateMar 2, 2031

Classification

  • Technology area (CPC G)Physics
  • CPC primaryG06N3/126
  • WIPO fieldComputer technology
  • WIPO sectorElectrical engineering

Abstract

A method for generating an optimized transition probability matrix (OTPM) is provided. The method is performed using a computer system coupled to a database. The method includes storing in the database financial data including obligor credit ratings, generating multi-period empirical transition probability matrices (ETPMs) for a selected time horizon using the financial data stored within the database, generating a mathematical expression to minimize a difference between target ETPM values and candidate OTPM values, and calculating the OTPM from the generated mathematical expression and the financial data stored within the database, wherein the calculated OTPM includes a first set of optimized transition probability values for predicting a likelihood that a credit rating of an obligor will migrate from one credit state to another credit state during a first time interval in the future.

Source: USPTO / EPO open patent data. Objective bibliographic and citation counts.